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WEDNESDAY,  NOVEMBER 4,  2009

POLITICAL SUICIDE? - AT 10:24 P.M. ET:  Apparently, last night's results won't deter Field Marshal Pelosi and her loyal brigades.  Right off the cliff they run:

Nov. 4 (Bloomberg) -- Undeterred by Republican election triumphs in Virginia and New Jersey, Democratic leaders put the U.S. House on a path to vote as early as Saturday on the most sweeping overhaul of health-care policy in four decades.

The election of Republican governors in New Jersey and Virginia won’t affect how the House proceeds on legislation to extend insurance to 36 million people and create a government- run program to compete with private insurers, lawmakers said.

Party leaders signaled they’re ready for the House to begin debating the legislation and vote on its final passage by filing a 42-page amendment that made last-minute changes to the bill. The filing last night triggered a 72-hour waiting period that Democrats pledged to give Republicans before a vote.

“We are on the verge of doing something great,” House Speaker Nancy Pelosi told reporters today after meeting with lawmakers in Washington. “From my perspective, we won last night,” she said, pointing to Democratic wins in two House races to fill vacancies in California and New York.

COMMENT:  She will be cheered in Aspen, San Francisco, Manhattan and Beverly Hills.  Everywhere else?  Do you hear the silence?

November 4, 2009   Permalink

 
SARAH'S MONTH - AT 7:46 P.M. ET:  The elections are over, and the next bit of big political news this month will be the re-launch of Sarah Palin.  Her book comes out in two weeks.  There'll be a major book tour.  She'll be on "Oprah."  At some point I suspect she'll answer questions from the press.

The key question of course, is whether Sarah will be ready.  I like her, always have, but I've conceded before that she was not ready for a national campaign a year ago, and certainly not ready to handle the despicable behavior of some media outlets.  I hope she's done her homework.  She has psychological momentum from last night's election results, and people are endlessly fascinated with her.  Now she must position herself beyond the level of a political curiosity.  She has to be a stateswoman.

Reader Joseph J. Gallick alerts us to a piece about the speeches that the McCain operatives wouldn't let Sarah deliver on election night last year.  Fascinating stuff.  Recommended reading.

November 4, 2009   Permalink

IRANIANS IN THE STREETS - AT 7:02 P.M. ET:  This has been a day of major anti-government demonstrations in Iran.  Notice, please, the intense interest (yawn) on the part of the Obama administration, where the term "human rights" has about as much appeal as "Sarah Palin." 

Planet Iran, guided by our friend, Banafsheh Zand-Bonazzi, has been live-blogging the action here.  Remarkably, many of the demonstrators are chanting, "Obama, Obama, are you with us or with them," meaning the hated regime.  Again, no answer from the White House.  Must be planning the next party, or campaign trip.

This comes on the same day when Israel intercepted a huge Iranian arms shipment to Syria and Syria's chorus boys, Hezbollah.  It comes two days after Iran's supreme leader openly insulted America and its president.

Fox News is now running a segment called "Turmoil in Iran."  This is a time for intense pressure on a regime that defies international rules and is despised by its own people.  The president shows, as usual, no sense of urgency.

November 4, 2009   Permalink

THE ELECTIONS AND YOUR HEALTH - AT 2:27 P.M. ET:  It appears that the first impact of last night's elections will be felt in congressional attitudes toward Obamacare, the mammoth, 2,000-page health "reform" bill now sitting in the House.  Dick Morris believes the elections may mark the end for Obamacare:

...Virginia results are the most important. More than 80 Democratic congressmen and twenty senators come from states that John McCain carried in 2008. For them, the sudden switch in Virginia, a swing state that Obama actually carried, heralds tough political times ahead.

And...

Until last night, Democratic moderates, the so-called blue dogs, could bask in the light of their candidate’s success in 2008. But now they must hear hoof beats behind them. The party discipline on which Obama depends to pass a health-care program that Americans reject by 42 percent for, 55 percent against (Rasmussen again) will only work if beleaguered Democratic incumbents can wrap themselves in Obama’s cloak and tough out the popular criticism. But the limits of Obama’s drawing power are readily apparent in the Republicans’ 20-point victory in Virginia and the race in New Jersey.

And...

In the coming weeks, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid will be asking their troops to cast potentially career-ending votes for health-care changes, Medicare cuts, higher taxes, and fines on the uninsured. Whether they take that risk depends on their faith in Obama’s drawing power.

But the votes in Virginia, in particular, show the limits of Obama’s appeal. The winner, Bob McDonnell, won the attorney general’s race in the last election by a few tenths of a percent over the same opponent. That he coasted to so huge a victory in the swing state of Virginia now has to send a message to red-state Democratic congressmen: Obama may be able to survive in the deep water into which he is leading his party, but you can’t.

COMMENT:  In the past, the so-called Blue Dog Democrats have caved in to leadership pressure, facing a bit of heat back home.  But asking a Blue Dog to commit political suicide may just be too much for most of them.  Very interesting few months ahead as the Dem leaders, who'd walk off the cliff as liberals,  try to ram through their signature legislation on (cough) health care.

November 4, 2009   Permalink

QUOTE OF THE DAY - AT 1:19 P.M. ET:  From, natch, Nancy Pelosi, who was taught by daddy to put a good face on everything, so the neighbors would never know.  She assesses last night's elections:

"From our perspective we won last night," Pelosi told reporters during a Wednesday morning photo opportunity. "We had one race that we were engaged in, it was in northern New York, it was a race where a Republican has held the seat since the Civil War and we won that seat, so from our standpoint, no, a candidate was victorious who supports health care reform, and his remarks last night said this was a victory for health care reform and other initiatives for the American people."

COMMENT:  It is rumored that Speaker Pelosi is reincarnated from a Japanese admiral who told the Emperor, "Hey, if we hit Pearl Harbor, we got it licked." 

November 4, 2009   Permalink

AND IN THE REAL WORLD - AT 8:57 A.M. ET:  Now the president must get back to work and start dealing with Iran.  Yesterday, Iran's supreme leader essentially laughed out loud at the United States, stating that it was insane for Iran to negotiate anything with Washington.  Today, there is action at sea involving Israel and Iran, as The Jerusalem Post reports:

Special Navy forces discovered weapons and ammunition on a cargo ship overnight Tuesday, after boarding the Francop some 100 nautical miles west of Israel flying an Antiguan flag.

Defense officials said the 140-meter long Francop, captured near Cyprus, was carrying arms sent by Iran and destined for Syria and Hizbullah.

More than 60 tons of weaponry were on board, in dozens of containers. The Francop carried hundreds of containers.

A significant amount of 122 mm. Katyusha rockets, likely made in Iran, assault rifles, mortar shells and grenades were found on board.

Israel Radio reported that advanced anti-aircraft platforms not before found in the region were also on board.

COMMENT:  The New York Times, by the way, is downplaying this report, insisting that Israel provided no "proof" that the ship carried Iranian arms.  I guess the arms came from Shangri-La. 

By the time the "proof" is delivered, those arms will be in action against Western targets and Israel.

There has been no change in Iran's behavior since Obama took office.  No change whatsoever.

November 4,  2009   Permalink

BARONE ON THE ELECTIONS - AT 8:26 A.M. ET:  If there's one person we can depend on after an election to report the key points that often elude others, it's Michael Barone.  Some of his findings are pretty startling, and, at least for now, encouraging:

First, in the governor elections in Virginia and New Jersey, the Democratic candidate ran far behind Barack Obama’s percentages in 2008 and the Republican candidates ran ahead of George W. Bush’s percentages in 2004. The numbers are pretty daunting. In Virginia Creigh Deeds won 41% of the votes, way behind Barack Obama’s 53% in 2008. And in New Jersey Democratic incumbent Jon Corzine won 45% of the votes, way behind Obama’s 57% in 2008.

And...

In contrast, the Republican candidates won higher percentages than Bush won in the recent high-water mark of the Republican party in 2004. Republican Bob McDonnell won 59% in Virginia, well ahead of Bush’s 54%. And Republican Chris Christie won 49%, ahead of Bush’s 46%. On the basis of these numbers you could say—in races where the issues were reasonably congruent though not identical to national issues—that Democrats were performing far below their recent optimal levels and Republicans were performing well above them.

Ah, sunshine amidst the gloom of the age of Obama.

October 4, 2009

Second, and here I want to credit for this observations longtime Democratic pollster and political analyst Pat Caddell, affluent suburban voters moved sharply toward Republicans in 2009.

That's a key constituency, often critical.

Finally, third, what will be the impact of these elections on forthcoming votes in Congress on the Democratic leadership’s controversial and unpopular health legislation?  The Virginia Board of Elections give us some hints when it aggregates the results by congressional district. In the 2008 elections three Democrats captured three previously Republican congressional districts in Virginia, giving Democrats six or the eleven-member delegation.

The results of the gubernatorial election show that at least some of these Democrats are imperiled.

Finally...

The 2009 election results are certainly not going to make it easy for Speaker Nancy Pelosi to round up the needed 218 votes for Democrats’ health care bills.

COMMENT:  Republicans can win, and win big.  It is no time to mope about 2008.  Get ready for 2010.  Good messages and good candidates prevail.

October 4, 2009   Permalink

AND NOW THE BRILLIANT ANALYSIS - AT 8:12 A.M. ET:  The 2009 mini-election is over.  The profound analyses are about to begin.  My suggestion is to ignore most of them and start thinking about 2010.  There's nothing as old as yesterday's election.

A few points about elections:  First, the only thing that counts is who wins.  There are no prizes for second place.  So, in New York City, there are substantial ahems this morning over the fact that challenger Bill Thompson lost to Mayor Mike Bloomberg by only five points, when a larger gap had been expected. 

That's nice.

Mike Bloomberg will take the oath.  Bill Thompson will not.

In New York's now-fabled 23rd Congressional District, insurgent conservatives can gloat that amateur politician, and personality-deprived Doug Hoffman, almost defeated the Democrat, Bill Owens.  But Bill Owens is going to Washington, Hoffman goes back to accountancy.  And it isn't even tax time.

Second point about elections:  There are lessons, but they may not apply next year.  We certainly learned that Barack Obama's coattails have been neatly removed by the great electoral tailor known as the American people.  He tried desperately to help Jon Corzine in New Jersey, and, indeed, we'd expected a long count on election night.  It was over in a few hours, ending in a GOP triumph.  (We'd also expected cries of "fraud" from Republicans.  But, when you win, you don't have to cry anything.)

Third point:  There are no permanent victories.  Nothing looked sweeter to Dems a year ago than the Commonwealth of Virginia.  Now the Dems are secretly thinking that the state is back in "Gone With the Wind" days.  They probably expect to see Vivien Leigh and Clark Gable on the streets of Richmond.

Conditions will change over the next year.  Today the voters are angry, they aren't listening much to the wit and wisdom of Barack Obama, and the mainstream media can't tell them how to vote.  They may have taken a swing toward the exotic in the 2008 presidential election.  But last night they elected an evangelical Christian as governor of Virginia, and, in the heart of blue country, a disturbingly overweight basic Republic as governor New Jersey.

As the great political scientist, V.O. Key, once observed, the voters aren't idiots.

October 4,  2009   Permalink

TUESDAY,  NOVEMBER 3,  2009

11:56 p.m.:  Fox News has called New York's 23rd Congressional District for Bill Owens, the Democrat, disappointing national conservatives who came into the district to boost the fortunes of insurgent conservative Doug Hoffman.  That's a Dem pickup.  Owens replaces Republican John McHugh, who resigned to become secretary of the Army.

11:28 p.m.:  A number of deceased Democrats who voted for Jon Corzine in New Jersey's gubernatorial election have asked not to be bothered again.

11:22 p.m.:  At this hour it appears that Mary Norwood will not reach 50% in her bid to become the next mayor of Atlanta, and will face a runoff.  The significance here is that Norwood, if she hits the magic number, would be the first white mayor of Atlanta in 36 years.  She has important African-American endorsements, but the African-American vote was split between two of Norwood's opponents.  If Norwood is forced into a runoff, as now seems likely, she will face one black opponent, and the contest will take on clear racial overtones, which is unfortunate. 

11:01 p.m.:  The big Republican disappointment tonight may well come in New York's 23rd Congressional District, where Democrat Bill Owens is maintaining a four-point lead over insurgent conservative Doug Hoffman.  Owens, of course, was endorsed by the establishment GOP candidate, who dropped out of the race in the face of the Hoffman surge.  If Owens wins, there will be a backlash within the Republican Party.  Some national Republicans intervened in the race to boost Hoffman, instead of the anointed GOP candidate, and may now regret it.  Some local Republicans in the district warned that it has been trending Democratic, and went for Barack Obama in 2008, and that someone as conservative as Hoffman could not be elected.  There's a big debate ahead if Owens wins, which now seems likely.

10:58 p.m.:  Although Mayor Mike Bloomberg has been elected to a third term in New York City, the race has turned out much closer than had been expected.  He was projected to win by double digits, but his margin of victory will turn out to be in the five-point range.  It may be that a number of Bloomberg voters, expecting an easy victory, stayed home. 

10:19 p.m.:  BULLETIN:  FOX NEWS HAS JUST CALLED THE NEW JERSEY GOVERNSHIP RACE FOR REPUBLICAN CHRIS CHRISTIE.  NEW JERSEY IS A PROFOUNDLY BLUE STATE.  PRESIDENT OBAMA CAMPAIGNED HEAVILY FOR INCUMBENT JON CORZINE.

10:15 p.m.:  There are reports of ballot problems in New York's now-famous 23rd Congressional District.  USA Today reports:  "This is not good news for political junkies hoping to get a winner in New York's 23rd Congressional District before bedtime: There are voting machine problems in St. Lawrence County, one of the more populous areas in the district.  The Watertown Daily Times says there are problems with the new scanners that read the ballots in the towns of Louisville, Waddington, Rossie and Clare.  'We may not have results from those towns tonight,' St. Lawrence County Board of Elections Deputy Commissioner Thomas Nichols told the paper."

Currently, Democrat Bill Owens is holding a seven-point lead over insurgent conservative Doug Hoffman, with 29% of the vote in.  We don't know where those votes are coming from. 

10:05 p.m.:  The New York Times has just called the New York mayoralty for Mayor Mike Bloomberg, an independent, which is no surprise.  The Democrats, who used to own City Hall, haven't been elected to the big office there since 1989, before most people had gotten into the internet, and long before the iPod was invented. 

9:56 p.m.:  BULLETIN:  With 64% of the vote in, Republican Chris Christie is holding a six-point lead over incumbent Democratic Governor Jon Corzine.  Christie is doing better than expected in a number of areas.  Exit polls indicated that he enjoys a wide lead among independents.  This could be big.

9:50 p.m. :  In Atlanta, Mary Norwood is close to the 50% mark needed to avoid a runoff.  She stands a good chance to be the first white mayor of Atlanta in 36 years.  She has the endorsement of some prominent African-Americans.

9:35 p.m.:  The GOP victory in Virginia is huge, with Bob McDonnell winning the governorship by about 20 points.  The state went for Obama last year.  McDonnell is about to speak.

9:32 p.m.:  It is still much too early to make a call, but Republican Chris Christie is maintaining his lead in the New Jersey gubernatorial race.  However, many Dem strongholds have not yet reported, and they have a way of finding votes.  So be careful if you hear predictions.

9:30 p.m.:  Doug Hoffman, the conservative insurgent in New York's 23rd Congressional District, was on the air a few minutes ago suggesting that ACORN-style gimmicks were being pulled in his district.  We'll keep watch on this.

9:14 p.m.:  Karl Rove was just on Fox News saying that Chris Christie, the Republican candidate for governor of New Jersey, is a few points ahead of where he needs to be to win the election.  This is very tight.  There is both hanky and panky in New Jersey cities.  Stand by.

8:56 p.m.:  Polls close in New York in four minutes.  We'll focus on that great fight in the 23rd Congressional District.  No new significant returns from New Jersey.  The poll watchers are still taking English as a second language.

8:39 p.m.:  From the Asbury Park (N.J.) Press:  "TRENTON — The tight three-way race for governor of New Jersey, a state battered by high taxes and scarred by government corruption, was too close to call after balloting ended Tuesday, according to an Associated Press exit poll of voters."

8:36 p.m.: For those interested, there are no signficant returns in yet from Atlanta, where a racially charged mayoralty race is being decided.  We'll let you know.

8:29 p.m.:  Very early returns from New Jersey look good for Republican gubernatorial challenger Chris Christie, according to CNN, but these returns are far too early to be predictive.

8:11 p.m.:  CNN now calls Virginia for McDonnell.  Guess they waited for Fox to make it official.

8:01 p.m.:  The polls just closed in New Jersey.  They're now counting ballots, or things that look like ballots.  You know you're in trouble when the candidates' names are written in invisible ink. 

7:59 p.m.:  Fox has just called Virginia for Bob McDonnell, the Republican candidate for governor.  This was expected, but a blow to the Democratic Party.  The Democratic national chairman, Tim Kaine, is the current governor of the state.

7:55 p.m.:  From Fox News:  "Early returns show Republican Bob McDonnell leading Democrat Creigh Deeds in the Virginia governor's race by a wide margin.  With 19 percent of precincts reporting, McDonnell has 65 percent and Deeds has 35 percent.  McDonnell had been leading Deeds by double digits in almost every poll ahead of Election Day. Deeds and his supporters have still held out hope for a possible upset Tuesday night. "

7:40 p.m. :  Polls in New Jersey close in 20 minutes.  If there'll be a political bloodbath tonight, it will be in New Jersey.  Almost all citizens who intended to vote have now voted.  The dearly departed have voted.  People with three names have voted.  People who don't exist have now voted.  Service stations have long lines as party stalwarts line up to refill after driving from poll to poll to vote at least 16 times.  This is New Jersey, the garden state.

7:35 p.m. :  This, from the Washington Post, on Virginia:  "Governor's race is too early to call, but exit polls show Republican candidate with a sizable advantage."

7:02 p.m.:  Polls in Virginia have just closed.  Fox News reports it does not have enough data to make a prediction, which is entirely understandable.  But the rumor mill tells us that Barack Obama has just cut the Virginia star out of the flag.

6:53 p.m.:  Polls in Virginia close in seven minutes.  We've been told to expect an easy win for GOP governorship candidate Bob McDonnell, but Dems are claiming a strong and encouraging turnout in their areas.  This is happy talk.  The truth, either way, will come out very quickly.  Stay tuned.

REMEMBER WHEN OBAMA WANTED THIS IN AUGUST? - AT 6:03 P.M. ET:  A funny thing happened to health-care "reform" on the way to a year-end deadline.  Fox News reports:

Despite President Obama's goal of signing healthcare reform legislation this year -- one backed by assurances from congressional Democrats -- Senate Democratic leaders Tuesday subtly acknowledged that's not likely to happen as they started the delicate dance of walking back expectations.

Putting the legislation together has proved exceedingly difficult, and most aides now say there is virtually no way a bill can get to Obama's desk this year.

When asked directly if he could finish legislation this year, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid said Tuesday, "We're not going to be bound by any timelines. We need to do the best job we can for the American people. We want quality legislation, and we're going to do that."

Previously, the Nevada Democrat had said a bill could be finished by various other deadlines, with Thanksgiving being the most recent one. But Reid started to qualify his answer after an August recess deadline came and went, saying that he didn't want to be bound by "arbitrary timelines."

COMMENT:  Reid later backtracked, saying he thought work could be finished by year's end, but others agreed with his more pessimistic assessment.

This has turned into a mess.  The bill is longer than the Five Books of Moses, and they've taken 6,000 years to understand.  A GOP bill, at about 350 pages, is expected in the next few days.  Watch some smug liberal commentator say, "You see, these Republicans, all they can read is 350 pages."

Neither version reads as well as "The Caine Mutiny."

November 3, 2009   Permalink

CLOSING TIMES - AT 5:08 P.M. ET:  Swing State Project, which is here, publishes a list of poll closing times.  Here is when you'll get the first election news tonight:

7:00 p.m.:  Virginia.  The governorship should be decided quickly, for Bob McDonnell, the GOP candidate.  Also closing is Georgia.  The mayoralty of Atlanta is being decided, and there are racial overtones.  It's possible that Atlanta will elect its first white mayor in many years.  That is noted objectively.  We're neither for nor against.

8:00 p.m.:  New Jersey.  Possibly the hottest race of the night.  Expect the count to go on a long time, and look for charges of fraud. 

9:00 p.m.:  New York.  The now-famous 23rd Congressional District will begin counting.  Watch the TV pundits go wild trying to interpret this one.  Also, the mayoralty of New York City will be decided.  As we've noted before, if Mayor Mike Bloomberg is reelected to a third term, it will mark 20 years since heavily Democratic New York City will have elected a Democratic mayor.

COMMENT:  There's almost no way the Democratic Party can come out of this looking good.  Losing the Virginia governorship alone is a major blow.  Even if New York is close, close in a heavily blue state is rare.  In New York's 23rd district, the Democratic nominee can only win with Republican support.

Stand by.  Things are getting interesting.

November 3, 2009   Permalink 
 

MR. OBAMA, WHAT DON'T YOU UNDERSTAND ABOUT THIS ANSWER? - AT 1:58 P.M. ET:  Iran's supreme leader, or whatever they call him, has now responded to Washington's overtures toward the Iranian regime:

TEHRAN -- Iran's supreme leader, spurning what he described as several personal overtures from President Obama, warned Tuesday that negotiating with United States was "naive and perverted" and said Iranian politicians should not be "deceived" into starting such talks.

Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said Obama has approached him several times through oral and written messages. It was the second time that Khamenei, 70, who wields ultimate political and religious authority in Iran, has referred to Obama's outreach, in which the U.S. president reportedly has requested talks between the two estranged nations.

Khamenei previously has mentioned receiving two letters from Obama. The White House has not confirmed sending letters to the supreme leader but has acknowledged a willingness to talk to Iran and said it has sought to communicate with Iranian leaders in a variety of ways.

What will Obama do now?  We know what he'll do.  He'll pretend nothing happened, and look for other ways to appease Iran.

In his harshest comments against the Obama administration to date, Khamenei said Tuesday that the United States has ill intentions toward Iran and is not to be trusted. The remarks came amid wrangling between Iranian officials and representatives of the United States, Russia and France over a U.N.-backed proposal aimed at resolving a protracted dispute over Iran's nuclear program.

COMMENT:  The president must produce something on Iran soon, or lose the confidence of any thinking American to the right of Bill Ayers. 

The West Europeans, usually soft as the buttery spread, are taking a harder line toward Iran than we are.  Meanwhile, the centrifuges keep spinning, and they're not producing pasteurized milk.

November 3, 2009   Permalink  

NEW JERSEY UPDATE - AT 10:48 A.M. ET:  Fox News has a good analysis of what to expect in today's New Jersey election for governor, which may well turn out to be the most exciting race of the day:

Last-minute shifts from independent candidate Chris Daggett could spell success for Democratic incumbent Jon Corzine in the New Jersey governor's race Tuesday. But Republican Chris Christie may still rely on turnout among undecided voters to pull an upset in what has been the closest race of the 2009 off-year election.

A Quinnipiac University poll released Monday found Christie with a 2-point lead over Corzine. Among likely voters, 42 percent backed Christie and 40 percent backed Corzine.

But independent Chris Daggett is still holding on to 12 percent of the vote, according to the poll, and the race's outcome rests on votes from his supporters as well as from undecided constituents.

The survey found that 38 percent of Daggett's supporters said they might change their mind on Election Day. Of the 38 percent thinking about changing their vote, 39 percent said they would back Corzine and 29 percent said they would support Christie.

Christie's 2-point lead is within the margin of error, but marks a gain from a Quinnipiac survey released last week, in which Corzine enjoyed a 5-point lead.

COMMENT:  Democrats usually pull it out in New Jersey, by hook or crook, mostly the latter.  Daggett is a kind of "moderate" type, high-sounding, whose supporters might well prefer the hopeless but well-dressed Corzine to the rougher GOP candidate, Christie.  There are people who choice depends on who they'd rather have at a dinner party.

The fraud issue comes into play if the vote is close.  I'm writing this about 15 miles from the New Jersey border.  Every time I look out the window and see an unmarked truck pass by, I wonder if it's filled with fake ballots, heading over the Tappan Zee Bridge.

November 3, 2009   Permalink

A MAN NOT "OF US" - AT 9:50 A.M. ET:  Why is President Obama down so far in the polls, compared to where he was?  In part, I think, it's because his policies reflect a man who is president of us, but is not "of us."  Rich Lowry writes a terrific piece today pointing out that the president has declined an invitation to visit Berlin on the 20th anniversary of the fall of the Berlin wall.  What a strange thing to do...unless you're Barack Obama: 

He has begged off going to Berlin next week to attend ceremonies commemorating the fall of the Berlin Wall. His schedule is reportedly too crowded. John F. Kennedy famously told Berliners, "Ich bin ein Berliner." On the 20th anniversary of the last century's most stirring triumph of freedom, Obama is telling them, "Ich bin beschäftigt" - i.e., I'm busy.

It doesn't have quite the same ring, does it? Obama's failure to go to Berlin is the most telling nonevent of his presidency. It's hard to imagine any other American president eschewing the occasion. Only Obama - with his dismissive view of the Cold War as a relic distorting our thinking and his attenuated commitment to America's exceptional role in the world - would spurn German president Angela Merkel's invitation to attend.

Well said.  Obama doesn't have the "American" feel, does he?

Wouldn't Obama at least want to take the occasion to celebrate freedom and human rights - those most cherished liberal values? Not necessarily. He has mostly jettisoned them as foreign-policy goals in favor of a misbegotten realism that soft-pedals the crimes of nasty regimes around the world. During the Cold War, we undermined our enemies by shining a bright light on their repression. In Berlin, JFK called out the Communists on their "offense against humanity." Obama would utter such a phrase only with the greatest trepidation, lest it undermine a future opportunity for dialogue.

Right on.

Pres. Ronald Reagan realized we could meet with the Soviets without conceding the legitimacy of their system. He always spoke up for the dissidents - even when it irked his negotiating partner, Mikhail Gorbachev. Whatever the hardheaded imperatives of geopolitics, we'd remain a beacon of liberty in the world.

Obama has relegated this aspirational aspect of American power to the back seat. For him, we are less an exceptional power than one among many, seeking deals with our peers in Beijing and Moscow. Why would Obama want to celebrate the refuseniks of the Eastern Bloc, when he won't even meet with the Dalai Lama in advance of his trip to China?

Finally....

An American president will skip events marking the end of a struggle to which we, as a nation - under presidents of both parties - devoted blood and treasure for 50 years. For Barack Obama, 1989 is just another far-away year - and the Democratic party of such men as Harry S. Truman and JFK has never seemed more distant.

COMMENT:  Obama's thinking, and it's not original with him, is the reason why so many of us drifted from the old Democratic Party, the national-defense party.  Look at that party today.  What a pathetic organization of pseudo-sophisticated trendies, much like Britain's Labour Party.  And at the top is the trendiest of them all, The One, the Holy of Holies.  Except the parishioners are leaving the pews.

November 3, 2009   Permalink

OBAMA IN LESS THAN GREAT SHAPE ON ELECTION DAY - AT 9:17 A.M. ET:  No matter how CNN spins it, in reporting its latest poll, the president is not doing well with the American public:

WASHINGTON (CNN) - One year after he won an historical presidential election, a slight majority of Americans approve of the job Barack Obama's doing in the White House.

Fifty-four percent of people questioned in a CNN/Opinion Research Corporation survey released Tuesday morning approve of how Obama's handling his duties as president, with 45 percent saying they disapprove.

Hardly worthy of applause.  And notice that the poll, as described later in the piece, was conducted among "adult Americans."  Not even registered voters.  Not even likely voters.  Polls among all adults with a pulse tend to overestimate the Democratic vote.  Actual returns trend more Republican.  So 54% is less than wonderful.  Rasmussen yesterday had Obama at 46% among likely voters.  If CNN polled likelies, they'd probably have a figure closer to Ras's. 

CNN puts on a happy face...at first:

"Obama's approval rating of 54 percent is nearly identical to the 53 percent of the vote he won a year ago," notes CNN Polling Director Keating Holland. "And in nearly every demographic category, the percent that approve of Obama today is within two to three points of the percent who voted for him in 2008..."

And then the bad news:

The survey suggests that the president's approval rating remains over 50 percent even though most Americans disapprove of how Obama is handling the economy, health care, Afghanistan, Iraq, unemployment, illegal immigration and the federal budget deficit.

And then, of course, there are the major issues. 

Just look at that list.  Americans are rejecting the policies of this administration.

More happy face:

Six in ten say Obama inspires confidence in them; six in ten also call him a strong leader who is honest and trustworthy. 63 percent say he is not a typical politician. More than half gives Obama a thumbs-up on 11 of the 12 personal characteristics tested...

That's nice.  Now more real world:

Only 45 percent say he has a clear plan for solving the country's problems - the only item on which a majority has a negative view of him.

Yeah, and who cares about that?  Right?

This is not good news for the White House.  Maybe it's time for the president to take another "rock star" tour of European youth.

November 3, 2009   Permalink

ELECTION DAY - AT 8:32 A.M. ET:  It's election morning here in the East, where most of the headline-making action will take place today.  The polls are opening.  Voters are making their way to polling stations.  In New Jersey, many of the dearly departed will be making their usual election-day appearances in the voting booths, proving that there is indeed life after death.

There are no new last-minute polls.  Maybe there'll be some in the next few hours.  The key races shape up this way:

- Virginia:  Unless something goes radically wrong in turnout, GOP gubernatorial candidate Bob McDonnell looks like a shoo-in for governor.

- New York City:  Again, unless something cuts his turnout, two-time Mayor Mike Bloomberg, an independent, looks certain to win a substantial victory.  In the heavily Democratic city of New York, this means that no Democrat has been elected to the mayor's chair in 20 years.  Free at last, free at last, thank God almighty, we're free at last.

- New York 23rd:  Right now it's the most famous congressional district in the country.  There's a good chance that Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman will pull off a victory against Democrat Bill Owens, but that is not a certainty.  The district has been trending moderate Republican, and went for Obama in 2008.  The last poll showed 18% undecided.  Watch this one.  Hoffman did himself no good in an anemic appearance on Fox News last night.  He looked ready for the undertaker.

- New Jersey:  Probably the most exciting race.  Republican challenger Chris Christie is neck-and-neck with much-disliked incumbent Governor Jon Corzine, with a third-party moderate acting as spoiler, and probably taking votes from Christie.  If Christie wins in this bluest of blue states, it will be a major blow to the Dems.  But - and this is critical - voter fraud is a major issue.  ACORN's allies are active.  Look for possible charges of fraud during the day.

We'll be watching developments all day, blogging through the returns tonight. 

November 3,  2009   Permalink